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Sunday, September 23, 2001 |
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Legal vs. military. Two approaches. Two different outcomes. The legalistic approach was followed by Europe during the Balkan crises. Women were raped, men were put into death camps, and the Balkans burned.
The US decided to end the crises (in the long-term we are all dead). We ended the situation. Who is more civilized? Which approach worked? Does any sane person think that the Taliban or Somalia would respond to demands from our legal establishments?
The Europeans hope to end this situation through a legalistic approach, yet again (recent polls suggest this). This time the US isn't listening. We know better. IF only so much sense prevailed in America during the late 30's. Luckily, this time the protection of the world's economy doesn't rest on the shoulders of the Europeans.
8:14:30 PM 
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NYT. Paul Krugman. A Bad Week.
"....so far the economic effects of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack look very little like those we usually associate with war, and very much like those we saw in the Asian financial crisis."
Krugman doesn't answer his own question. Why does this look like a financial crisis? Answer: There has been a general loss in confidence in the US. Not just here but worldwide. The Gulf War wasn't nearly as critical as this is. If this confidence cannot be restored quickly (in the next year), the world will see a general decline that hasn't been suffered since the depression of the 1930's. Think depression. Think 20-30% unemployment in the US, Europe, and Japan.
Think destabilized governments throughout the developing world and the US bloc unable to afford any intervention. Think of the monsters and the suffering that came out of the last depression. Poject it onto today. This is the stuff bogeymen are made out of.
8:03:33 PM
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Is knowledge inherently dangerous? A decade ago I read a book by Frank Herbert called the White Plague. It changed me. Bill Joy read it too and it lead him to write, "The Future Doesn't Need Us." The concept is simple. A single biotechnologist has his family blown up in a IRA attack. He decides to make war on the world. So, for less than $200,000 he builds a basement biotechnology lab (I researched it and it can be done) and designs a airborned virus that targets females. He wants the world to feel as he does, bereft. He succeeds.
The question for Joy and myself became after reading this: will certain knowledge become too dangerous for society to let an individual know unsupervised? Will we need to control all people that know too much? I had an advanced physics instructor once (I almost became a physicist because it was easy and fun), that built designer nukes (BTW, you can do a lot with nukes. You can vary the radiation output, you can make it blast only without much radiation, you can shape the charge to have it blow in a single direction, and you can select the form the energy to yield). He was a controlled person. Why? Because he knew too much. Will that be the same with nanotech, biotech, and AI tech? My gut tells me yes.
7:13:23 PM
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What are my politics?
I have been a nonpolitical person for a long time (a decade). So much of national politics was a debate over nothing of major interest to me or my family. One of the the big reasons I decided to join the software industry was that technology was (and still to an extent is) having a greater impact on the future of the world than any other area.
September 11th changed things. I find that I am political again. So, here is an open review of my politics. More for my benefit than yours.
The US. I love this country. It allows people a level of freedom that has never been duplicated. You can reinvent yourself here like no where else. The people here are smart, good hearted, and willing to do the right thing. The US always looks at change with an open heart in the anticipating that something good will come out of it.
The military and the CIA. I spent 11 years of my life in the US military as a pilot. Why? Because it was the right thing to do (also it was a chance to get into the space program). I made my contribution (although most upper middle class kids don't). I am skeptical of unsigned checks being given to military and the CIA. They need tight control -- many of the big ticket weapons systems don't make sense from a strategy perspective. I do believe the people need to be paid more, I hated to see people that worked for me apply for foodstamps.
Presidential politics. I liked Reagan. I disliked Bush. I liked Clinton (although his excess fueled some of my alienation). I am slowly starting to like Bush 2. I will cross party line when I think it makes sense. Generally, I like our Presidents to create a sense of confidence in the nation, and get out of the way for people to do the rest.
Abortion. I don't have a strong feeling here although I think the long-term trend is towards enfranchisement (extension of rights to an ever greater number of people). Generally, I don't like it, but I support the choice of women not to be pregnant.
Stem cells. I believe in new technology. This was my only hot button issue this year. My ten year old daughter has diabetes and my father has Parkinson's. It makes sense to push aside old boundaries to find new cures. Nuff said.
Fiscal policy. We shouldn't spend that much. Why? I think it exerts a discipline on the government to select the best solutions to fund. Also, it keeps interest rates low if we don't run a defecit.
Foreign policy. Generally, I believe the US should stay aloof from most entanglements. Occasionally, we should grease the wheels of progress, but for the most part not. Although, this changed last week. Our system is now at risk, and that makes me both mad and interventionist. We need to put an end to this situation.
Terrorists. This is an era I have been dreading. I spent a good part of my life fighting these guys in the eighties and early nineties. We won then, but they got us this time. The advance of technology is going to quickly make it impossible to have people that would do what bin Laden did last week (biotech, nanotech, and suitcase nukes -- they exist! -- are on the way). Terrorists are soon become too dangerous to let coexist. This is a war. A war for the future of the safety of free societies everywhere that goes way beyond current politics, peoples, and religions (sorry).
Race. For the most part, I think things have gotten better. They can get better still. Nothing happens overnight, but things are on the right track. Unfortunately, stupid people are out there. One thing, people need to realize that life is difficult, even if you are a white male. It is always tough to get a good job -- I was told in interviews by major consulting companies that my military background meant that I didn't have the mental alacrity to be a consultant (twice!).
Did I miss anything I need to have a view on? I think I hit most of the hot buttons. jrobb@userland.com
6:56:11 PM
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Stop the Security Systems Standardization Act. EFF proposal. Countermeasures to this act are so easy to implement that it makes it a farce. The only thing it does is put an end to American privacy.
5:48:46 PM
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Is sympathy for the Taliban a manifestation of the Stockholm Syndrome? Probably not, but it something to think about.
12:30:40 PM
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More on Europe. Dave posted his e-mail from Europe. I did some of the same on my Weblog yesterday.
I had the opportunity to live in Europe for three years while in high school. During the first six months, probably in an attempt to fit in, I accepted much of the critical thinking Europeans did about America in good faith that it was well thought out (as do many "sensitive" students who spend a semester abroad). Over time, I found that many of the people that expressed negative views of America founded them on prejudice and stereotypes of the worst sort. Stereotypes of Americans as redneck fundamentalists, cowboy militarists, and trailer park trash were the most common. Also, the notion that the US is a hotbed of crime, racism, and arrogance made worse by our overly commercial culture (or lack of culture).
With these stereotypes in place, it was impossible to hold a decent conversation. If I questioned the assumptions, either I was judged as needing an eduction in the reality of things (of course by people who had never visited the US) or that I wasn't sensitive enough to understand(?).
Of course, most of the people I met while there didn't fall into the trap of prejudice, but the experience alerted me to the fact that it exists even in otherwise smart people.
12:27:34 PM
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A Microsoft sponsored P2P distribution system. Pastry. Here is a link to other Microsoft Research projects in the pipeline.
11:19:56 AM
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Bin Laden's Fatwa.
"We -- with God's help -- call on every Muslim who believes in God and wishes to be rewarded to comply with God's order to kill the Americans and plunder their money wherever and whenever they find it. We also call on Muslim ulema, leaders, youths, and soldiers to launch the raid on Satan's U.S. troops and the devil's supporters allying with them, and to displace those who are behind them so that they may learn a lesson."
11:09:53 AM
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Disney. Disney is finally on the march (but are they too late?). Given that the future of entertainment is a confluence of new Internet technologies and traditional media (Adam was one of the first to see the shift), Disney is looking for answers. Andre mentions that Disney is working with Jabber to standardize instant messaging. Where else are should they look?
To find out the answer to that question, le't do some analysis. What should Disney do to compete with AOL and Microsoft? AOL is working quickly to lock up broadband cable distribution. Microsoft is starting to court the regional bells (who may become more important to Microsoft than Intel over time). Control over access gives these companies one huge advantage: they have a credit card number for all subscribers.
For Disney, the only untapped method of distribution left is: roaming 802.11b networks. So far, these efforts have been grass roots projects. For example, I can put my node in the window of my urban apartment, turn-off WEP and let anyone connect. That way anyone can share my DSL connection. There is no reason Disney can't leverage that network of wireless access points to offer high-speed access for a $10 a month roaming charge. Here is the business model, share that roaming charge with the individuals who are providing the service. For example: 5 users per node, share 50% of $50 a month in access charges with the individual node owners (depending on bandwidth and utilization) = $25 a month (about equal to the cost of getting DSL once you subtract the cost of the telephone line). In fact, this could be a grass roots business, with people that own multiple nodes making a small living connecting users.
AOL and Microsoft control client software on the desktop. This gives them a distinct advantage: they can provide superior customer experiences. In order to compete, Disney needs to put software on user desktops. One way is to build games (they are following that path already) yet another is to put a content management system (that includes a database and an http server) platform onto customer desktops (Radio). This would allow Disney to build Websites that run on the deskop.
Further, Disney needs to connect these desktop content managemnet platforms together using P2P technologies and to back-end systems using Web services (XML-RPC) to build a new class of applications. The benefits to Disney = low cost distribution (Disney wouldn't need to run a huge server cloud to support this since most of the content would flow via P2P), superior performance (these sites are fast, it takes less than a second to flip a page or launch a video since the content resides on the desktop), and control over a part of the user interface.
Does Disney have the vision to compete with AOL and Microsoft? Probably not, but I wish they did.
10:10:08 AM
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Andre Durand, the founder of Jabber, Inc. has a new Manila Weblog. Welcome!
This is a well done site and a good demonstration of why every founder, CEO, or clear thinking executive should have their own site(s). Andre is able to post his point of view on current events, enhance his personal brand, and share his vision of where his company is going. Bravo!
8:52:39 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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