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Wednesday, March 03, 2004 |
 An amalgam of transnational terrorism and crime is the dark underbelly of the second superpower. If so, how big is its economy? Estimates are that transnational crime and terrorist organizations generate between $1.5 and $2 trillion a year from their activities. Could terrorists co-opt a large percentage of this economy as a tax? If so, 20% would yield $400 billion, which is about equal to the US defense budget. What is unclear is the growth rate of this economy. I suspect that given globalization and the distraction caused by terrorism, it is growing at a rate an order of magnitude greater than the global economy.
11:09:35 AM 
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William Lind whacks the neo-con thesis: democracratic capitalism can be imposed. Case point to contrary: Haiti.
The neo-cons in fact are Jacobins, les ultras of the French Revolution who also tried to export “human rights” (which are very different from the concrete, specific rights of Englishmen) on bayonets. Then, the effort eventually united all of Europe against France. Today, it is uniting the rest of the world against America.
10:19:56 AM
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Blackmail and terrorism. This is a real trend.
A previously unknown group calling itself AZF has threatened to blow up France's SNCF state railway if it can't be satisfied with a ransom of five million US dollars (four million euros), officials said Wednesday.
On Feb. 21, the police found one sophisticated time bomb under rails near Limoges between Paris and Toulouse following hints by the AZF.
This is unusual given that it was directed against a state run organization. It is much more effective against companies that trade in public markets. Terrorists are quickly moving away from away from mercurial sources of funding (donations and state funding) to self-funding via economic crime (drugs, blackmail, protection money, stock market manipulation, etc.). This move will make terrorist organizations much more difficult to shut down.
9:23:14 AM
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Full text of the Zaqwari letter (not just quotes). The last paragraph is particularly interesting.
SO IF YOU AGREE WITH IT AND ARE CONVINCED OF THE IDEA OF KILLING THE PERVERSE SECTS, WE STAND READY AS AN ARMY FOR YOU, TO WORK UNDER YOUR GUIDANCE AND YIELD TO YOUR COMMAND.
Here's an alternative interpretation: It implies that Zaqwari's operation wasn't set up by al Qaeda. By emphasizing the negative/perils, he is making his case for help and command ownership from the larger organization.
8:12:44 AM
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Ethan Zuckerman wants to include the developing world in the second superpower. I think it is already there and over time it will dominate the movement. BTW, I don't think it will be all sweetness and light like Joi and Jim Moore think.
7:40:00 AM
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Seymour Hersh details outlines the deal between the US and Pakistan over its nuclear proliferation. The US opted to push for a rapid (pre-election) push for bin Laden...
Milton Bearden, who ran the C.I.A.’s operations in Afghanistan during the war with the Soviet Union, recounted, “I’ve been all through there. The Pashtun population in that belt has lived there longer than almost any other ethnic group has lived anywhere on earth.” He said, “Our intelligence has got to be better than it’s been. Anytime we go into something driven entirely by electoral politics, it doesn’t work out.”
rather than the long and slow process of unwinding the black market for nukes.
Many diplomats in Vienna expressed frustration at the I.A.E.A.’s inability, thanks to Musharraf’s pardon, to gain access to Khan. “It’s not going to happen,” one diplomat said.
What do you think is more important?
7:35:13 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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