Sunday, March 14, 2004

Spain is coerced by al Qaeda  Wow!  The bombing in Madrid completely reversed the elections in Spain today.  The Socialists (who want to withdraw from Iraq) won by a substantial margin.  Prior to the bombing, the Popular Party was ahead.  This is a tangible terrorist victory.  Of course, this is blood in the water for terrorists. I was clearly wrong in estimating the impact of this attack due to some unique factors:  the government's prevarication regarding the perpetrators, the extremely high public sentiment against the war in Iraq, and the rapidity of the elections after the attack. Working on what this means over the longer term.  Will post that thinking tomorrow. 5:32:30 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

MEMRI has the full translated text of the al Qaeda message claiming responsibility for the bombings in Spain. The Death Brigades penetrated into the European Crusader heartland, and struck a painful blow at one of the foundations of the Crusader coalition. This is part of a settling of old accounts with Crusader Spain, the ally of the U.S., in its war against Islam… Take your hands off us! Release our prisoners! Get out of our lands! Then we will leave you alone. 3:02:28 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

A classic example of terrorism's coercive impact  Watch the election results in Spain.  It will be a strong indicator as to whether current terrorist methods can actually coerce change in a modern nation-state.  My analysis is that it will likely backfire against the terrorists by increasing support for the party in power.  Turnout is expected to be over 80%.  Just before the attack the PP was up 4.5% in the polls and just 4 seats shy of an absolute majority.  11:26:29 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

Two responses to globalization?  Friedman provides a nice insight:  The two responses of the developing world to extreme globalization. Infosys said all the walls have been blown away in the world, so now we, an Indian software company, can use the Internet, fiber optic telecommunications and e-mail to get superempowered and compete anywhere that our smarts and energy can take us. And we can be part of a global supply chain that produces profit for Indians, Americans and Asians.  Al Qaeda said all the walls have been blown away in the world, thereby threatening our Islamic culture and religious norms and humiliating some of our people, who feel left behind. But we can use the Internet, fiber optic telecommunications and e-mail to develop a global supply chain of angry people that will superempower us and allow us to hit back at the Western civilization that's now right in our face. A couple decades ago I read a study (I wish I could find it online) that examined how certain nations were genetically incapable of working within the international system.  Their internal dialogue led them to lie, cheat, and steal in order to avoid paying debt, abide by international rules of behavior, etc.  A large part of this internal dialogue was grounded in an overweening pride and a feeling of unfair treatment by powerful, arrogant 'enemies.' 11:07:32 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

PC bots may unleash a robotic revolution  PC-bots (like the one below) are really interesting.  Adding mobility to a PC chassis makes it possible to replace lots of dedicated devices.  Functionality can be added just by loading software and attaching peripherals (that plug into the system usign PC standard connections).  Some applications:  litterbox cleaning ($250 for a dedicated system), medical reminders and pill delivery, security and alert notification, mobile music, household inventory control, cleaning, etc.  It will also be interesting to see how the "embedded" vision competes with the personal PC bot.  I think PC bots will win in the home given they are much less expensive and much more flexible. 9:00:27 AM    Comment_ Trackback []