Thursday, March 18, 2004

Lind on strategic bombing in Spain: The whole notion that the 21st century can suddenly revert to the 18th and governments can fight wars in which the people and vital national interests are not involved is absurd.  That is the real lesson of the Spanish election.  War is no longer a “game of princes.”  The people are involved, and Fourth Generation opponents know how to make sure they are intensely involved, by bringing the war home to them. The Washington Times quoted a Pentagon official as saying of the Spanish election, “This was a big defeat for us.  Al Qaeda caused a regime change better than we did in Baghdad.  No cost.”  That is exactly correct.  Using the simplest of technologies, al Qaeda or whatever Fourth Generation organization did it, undertook a strategic bombing campaign of unprecedented effectiveness.  Their backpacks outperformed our B-2 bombers. 7:31:17 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

WSJ.  A lack of new plants, pipelines and ships to deliver raw materials to keep the world economy running is helping to keep commodity prices high, adding to the effects of roaring demand from China and the weak dollar.  Commodity prices are spiking across the board (double digit increases).  For example:  Oil is near its all time high (during the first Gulf war) at $38 a barrel.  A terrorist attack on critical commodity infrastructure -- which is currently operating at high stress levels -- at this point would spike prices through the roof (due to a combination of real damage and fear of future damage).  The increasingly weak dollar would exacerbate the impact on US exporters: The dollar's weakness, of course, makes items traded in the U.S. currency, including commodities, appear more expensive and the price moves more extreme. Since the start of 2003, for instance, the euro has risen against the dollar by 17% to $1.2237. That means that oil is up only 5% in euro terms, compared with 22% in dollar terms. 7:22:32 AM    Comment_ Trackback []