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Monday, March 22, 2004 |
 Marc Andreessen is full of incredible optimism (as only a serial entrepreneur can be). He sent me a list of what he sees as American strengths. Its hard to argue with any of them. Have a read (I think he needs a weblog because this is great stuff).
6:46:32 PM 
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IHT. Smartmobs using SMS texting drove the Spanish election.
6:29:29 PM
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Marc Andreessen sent me some clarification on comparative advantage vs. competitive advantage re: my post on Ricardo (thanks Marc). This is counter-intuitive so follow it closely. He says:
Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage holds even in the case where one country does *everything* better than another country. That's why free trade has worked so well over such a long period of time across such a large set of countries.
An analogy that works is the following: a lawyer and a secretary. Say the lawyer is a better lawyer AND a better typist than the secretary. It still makes sense for the lawyer to hire the secretary and pay the secretary for typing services -- despite the fact that the lawyer is actually a better typist than the secretary. Obviously this is because the lawyer is better off spending all of his time being a lawyer (the thing he is "most best" at) vs taking part of his time to type, whereas the secretary is obviously way better off spending all of his time typing as opposed to trying to be a really bad lawyer. Both sides benefit from the exchange. That's comparative advantage, and that's why Ricardo's theory applies just as much today as ever.
Here is more elaboration on comparative advantage. The key is opportunity cost. However, this brings me back to my original problem: what should the US specialize in?
4:52:35 PM
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Andrew's BitTorrent test is going well. I was able to download the 2 Mb file in 24 seconds (including initialization). Now to the good part:
- An interface for publishing Torrent files to your weblog via enclosures.
- An easy to use interface for managing downloaded files in your newsreader.
- A plug-in architecture for BitTorrent that simplifies the installation and upgrade process (like Quicktime or Flash) -- or -- at least a snazzy installer (like the PDF installer).
- A java downloader for those that don't or can't download the client may be something worth building.
I don't necessarily want a separate interface for BitTorrent but rather support for it built into existing tools. P2P tools should be as invisible as plumbing.
4:29:01 PM
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This was something I anticipated (it was what I would have done as a commander). A Pakistani supply convoy was attacked by tribal/al Qaeda/Taliban forces today resulting in 12 dead and 22 wounded.
Pakistan rapidly deployed (perhaps hastily) 5,000 troops deep into rough/unforgiving terrain to capture some al Qaeda affiliated operatives (most likely Uzbeks). They met more resistance than expected (due to the quality of the fighters they faced and the quality of the entrenchments). The extended length of the operation now puts them at risk if supplies can be cut.
The tribes in this region are nominally under Pakistani rule, and very defensive of their autonomy. IF (and this is a big if) this situation turns bad, it could result in the vicious Scythian "swarming" attacks of the type that drove the Brits and Russians out of Kabul. A defeat like that level would spell the end of Musharaff and US efforts in the area in two short weeks.
3:11:46 PM
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NS. The next generation of terrorist bombs will likely be something antipated on this weblog: fuel-air.
Designs for a fuel-air device were also acquired by the CIA from three alleged IRA members on trial in Colombia. The three are said to have been developing the bomb in conjunction with the country's FARC guerrilla group. "Although an IRA/Al-Qaida collaboration seems unlikely, the bottom line is that their respective manuals are probably in circulation," says David Ritzel, an explosives expert working for the DRDC.
Fuel-air explosives, while difficult to build, are much more effective than traditional bombs. They work by igniting a cloud of finely atomized fuel. The result is a high degree of "overpressure" which kills people and collapses buildings. This radically increases the distance at which bombs can have impact (the overpressure can travel a great distance). It can also kill people within protected structures.
10:07:40 AM
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The reactions to the assassination of Yassin from London and the EU is more than a little hypocritical. All of the global nation-state players use (or condone) assassination as a tool of policy against non-state actors (and even state actors in the case of Saddam -- which all the coalition members during GWI and GW2 were complicit in). Once you start down the road to assassination, there is no case that can be made for discretion in targetting if a clear link to national preservation can be made. The US response seems to be cognizant of this. Of course, this policy will likely bite us in the ass in the future when a similar line of reasoning is used against us.
8:47:20 AM
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NYT. The founder and leader of Hamas was assassinated by Israel yesterday. Unfortunately, decapitation strikes -- while they might confer moral and propoganda benefits (of course, even that can be disputed) -- do not provide any lasting disruption of distributed terrorist networks. For a deeper analysis of the impact of decapitation strikes, visit "Global Guerrillas."
7:57:47 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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