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Thursday, April 01, 2004 |
 Google-mail may be innovative if: it looks like Zoe. It may have a great business model if: the contextual advertising is smart too. Smart? Yes. I think the next big innovation in contextual advertising, now that we have this level of volume, is:
Ad-based decision support tools. Simple, clear, branded, and well researched tools to help people to decide which product to buy.
I led a team that built up a business to do this at Gomez (in 1998) and it grew from $0 to $1.8 m a quarter (in revenue), in less than 2 years. Of course, at this volume, it could generate several orders of magnitude more. I have to give Google credit with Froogle. It is a step along this road. Consumer reviews will probably be the next step. However, price comparison and consumer reviews are only two aspects of product evaluation. A suite of smart comparison tools will need to include these aspects and more (there is also some counter-intuitive ways to make money from this type of system that protects objectivity). If I was going to build a new business online today (a real company and not a publishing venture), I would build one that builds contextual advertising decision support tools.
5:09:33 PM 
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Next Generation Terrorism Group: Points of potential discussion are the differences between failed states and rogue states -- and -- the rift in views between the US and Europe on the proper response to terrorism.
2:22:43 PM
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Todd Gross, a weatherman from a local Boston station, points out a very interesting weather note (thanks Joe):
A Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone (pick a name, they don't have them down there, and all 3 storms are the same) struck southern Brazil coming off the S. Atlantic. The only problem... HURRICANES HAVE NEVER FORMED IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC IN MODERN DAY RECORD KEEPING!. Well, the absolutely biggest clue to global climate change "might" be a Hurricane in the S. Atlantic, indicating that sea temperatures and/or circulation patterns have shifted. The Hurricane in Brazil this past weekend (3,000 homeless) while only category 1 or 2, is one of the most important weather events ever to happen on Earth in your lifetime. It may or may not be a signal of further changes in global climate in decades ahead, but it is fascinating nonetheless.
Given the recent DoD report on rapid climate change (mini ice age) and its impact on world security, this is an interesting datapoint.
9:00:18 AM
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I am very glad to see that P2P photo sharing applications are now on the market. This is something I have advocated for years (and given the e-mail I have gotten on this topic during this time, it has had an impact). P2P should be plumbing for useful apps, much as what is being done with bitTorrent and RSS eclosures.
7:53:55 AM
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RFE. Pakistan is withdrawing its troops from the tribal region of South Waziristan, where they have been battling suspected foreign fighters with links to Al-Qaeda for the past two weeks. At risk of a major loss, Pakistan withdraws its troops from Waziristan. This is going to be seen as a major defeat within Pakistani military circles. Lind is much more negative since he sees this as call to arms for Islamic guerrillas in the region.
7:35:48 AM
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Condolences to the families of the Blackwater Security men (mostly former special ops Seals) killed in Iraq. This attack (and a follow up attack on a supply convoy Blackwater was tasked with protecting) does demonstrate how limited the US military presence is in Iraq -- there wasn't any US military response to the attack within any relevant time period. Private mercenaries are providing most of the connective tissue necessary for the occupation. Often that support is provided without any reference to US military forces who are limited to relatively static operations around protected enclosures.
There are lots of unanswered questions about the legal status of corporate mercenaries. Unless these questions are answered quickly, on an international scale, this situation is going to get even messier than it is today.
7:11:31 AM
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Howard Stern has been taken off the air by Infinity Broadcasting. The Neo-Victorian censors in the FCC/White House/Congress have won. No headlines yet (they will likely appear soon). One solution: Vote Bush and the Republicans out of office. I am still holding out for an April Fools joke. UPDATE: Whew! It was a joke.
6:57:59 AM
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WSJ. Is Shell Oil's problem an indicator of a global oil production peak?
The Shell analysts questioned in the presentation whether Shell could deliver on its production-growth targets even as output from existing fields was decreasing by 10% each year.
It may be the smoke that indicates a bigger problem: As the supergiant oil fields decline, it is becomming increasingly apparent that the smaller, more expensive fields recently (last 20 years) found and developed can't pick up the slack.
6:34:21 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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