Thursday, April 15, 2004

With the US tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Al Qaeda will likely be looking for a way to widen the conflict.  A likely source of the type of failed states that non-state terrorists thrive in:  Africa.  Manufacturing failed states is an adjunct to this strategy.  Nigeria, with a horrible economy, exploding population, and a large (50%) muslim community looks like it would be a perfect target.  I should probably write an essay on this. 5:57:59 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

I think Philip G should talk about the conceptual antidote to a power law distribution in the weblog world: small world networks.  I am sure Technorati could determine the mean path length between any two weblogs. 5:31:28 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Peter Singer has a new Salon article about PMCs in Iraq.   He asks:  Who calls the shots in this outsourced war?  I can answer that without reading the article:  Nobody does.  It is a market mechanism run amok.  It needs regulation (and legal support), co-opetition (between the firms), and tighter integration (with the US military).  In terms of co-opetition, here are a couple of thing I would build immediately to get things back on track (putting my entrepreneurial hat on): An online market-based system for sharing intel (both operational and strategic) between vetted firms. A hostage recovery (rescue and negotiation) service that all firms contribute to. An online tool for GPS services that enables employee tracking. 3:09:09 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

CNN.  Insurance premiums for contractors in Iraq double.  Experts say security and insurance costs now represent half the total cost of doing business in Iraq for international firms. That is if they are able to continue doing business at all.  (MY NOTE:  it is about equally divided between insurance and security). Things brings up an important point.  We were very quick to allocate the reconstruction funds to US/UK firms when we may have been better off working with regional firms. 2:58:15 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

WT.  90 day tour extension expanded to 21,000 troops. 2:51:03 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

New Post to Global Guerrillas  Was 9/11 a Black Swan?  Black swan events are unpredictable outliers.  It is possible to mitigate the impact of future vicious black swans if hindsight bias is avoided and new thinking is rewarded.  1:37:55 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Japanese hostages are freed.  I wonder how much the Japanese paid for their release?  The hostage takers were as likely to be a criminal group as a terrorist group (despite the name).  Two more Japanese were taken at about the same time as the release.  The cycle continues. 10:48:53 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

Google's Adwords is broken which isn't a good sign for its IPO plans.  When Google's Adwords first launched it was a pleasure.  Clean, full of useful information, and easy to use.  My recent test of the system indicates that today's Adwords is confused and full of broken automation.  Keywords selected often don't always activate.  Ads run for less than a couple of hours before they are deemed below the click-through rate necessary to run (the sample size is too small).  The campaign data is slow to show up, if it shows up at all (the earlier iteration of the service showed immediate results, a necessary requirement for this type of service).  Unnecessary fees are charged for reactivation of the account and the accounting for when to charge these fees is confused (in my case it was wrong).  The simple interface for estimating keyword popularity has been removed from the service (which makes it difficult to determine which keyword should be used).  Yuk.  Beware.  Microsoft and Yahoo take note. 10:38:26 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

As Dave and the Generals on NPR note:  the US military is fully deployed in Iraq (which is amazing given that we spend over $700 m a year -- all-in costs -- on the military today).  The only way to increase forces in Iraq now is to eliminate troop rotations.  If you are looking for a reason for why PMC (private military corporations) are being used so extensively in Iraq today (upwards of 20,000 security consultants are in Iraq), this is it.  The number of PMC employees may outnumber uniformed US troops in Iraq within the next two years. BTW:  In that interview on NPR, General Odem hits the nail on the head: Odom says the U.S.-led war to oust Saddam Hussein has had the unintended consequence of making Iraq safe for terrorists and other anti-U.S. movements "and they're breeding them rapidly." 8:58:29 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

More political deception/coercion from al Qaeda:  an offer of truce to Europe. 8:45:49 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

WSJ.  Inflation jumped by 0.5% in March (a 6% rate if annualized).  Bad news.  All eyes are on the Fed.  8:29:23 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

Damn.  There are so many good sessions at Bloggercon II.  I need some just-in-time cloning to attend all of the sessions I want to go to. 6:41:41 AM    Comment_ Trackback []