Friday, April 16, 2004

Reuters:  Global energy usage to jump 54% by 2025. Expected oil need to jump from ~81 m barrels a day to 121 m barrels.  My question:  where are we going to get that oil given the sharp drop in production from the aging super giant fields? One answer:  OPEC is expected to be the major supplier of the extra oil, with the cartel's production at 56 million bpd in 2025 compared to 27 million bpd this year. Does anyone else see a big problem with this?  I don't see any signs that OPEC can expand production to meet this demand.  Further, political instability is growing in the OPEC countries. 7:19:53 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

The US Department of Homeland Security is using RSS 1.0.  7:04:49 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Zinni on the offensive: For years Zinni said he cautioned U.S. officials that an Iraq without Saddam Hussein would likely be more dangerous to U.S. interests than one with him because of the ethnic and religious clashes that would be unleashed. "I think that some heads should roll over Iraq," Zinni said. "I think the president got some bad advice."  Known as the "Warrior Diplomat," Zinni is not a peace activist by nature or training, having led troops in Vietnam, commanded rescue operations in Somalia and directed strikes against Iraq and al Qaeda. "I've been called a traitor and a turncoat for mentioning these things," said Zinni, 60.  (MY NOTE:  The administration's approach to knowledgeable critics is a disaster.) He told an overflow crowd that the United States tries to grapple with individual issues in Middle East instead of seeing them as elements of a broader question. "We need to step back and get a grand strategy," he said. 8:19:52 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

What did Osama's videotape do?  Here is what it messaged (it is pure psyops, which is 90% of terrorism -- which does point to an additional modification that should be made to the US intelligence structure:  the elevation of psyops): I'm alive and unharmed despite declaring war on the US. I can still get my message out to a global audience. Last week's problems in Iraq are part of my war with the US. 7:47:22 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

NYT.  Wow.  The White House is looking at a director of national intelligence...  The reason this is a hot issue:  intelligence is at the heart of the war on terrorism.  It stands on its head the old formula for addressing threats which was 10% intelligence and 90% operations.  Operational dominance pervades all aspects of the current government security structure.  Fixing that, and it needs to be done, will take much more than random tweaks to the system.  Of course, with Iraq in the foreground it may be impossible to make this shift. 7:25:54 AM    Comment_ Trackback []