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Thursday, May 20, 2004 |
 The Economist: Those who watch the oil market reckon that this (the terrorism premium) is currently worth between $4 and $8 a barrel. Before Iraq, this was $0. This should be part of a terrorism index. I should probably make a proposal for this. One thing that I would include is US unpopularity in Islamic countries (this impacts terrorist recruitment) -- this data indicates that things have improved somewhat since the high point during the summer of 2003.
6:39:43 PM 
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K-Logs: Microsoft's Bill Gates extolls the benefits of weblogs/RSS to the world's top CEOs. Huzzah!
5:30:36 PM
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This drip, drip, drip of disclosure sucks. Let's get it out quickly. When will the Pentagon wake up to the reality that it doesn't "own" the information.
10:55:45 AM
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This is interesting. "Hammered again by Democrats over rising gasoline prices, President George W. Bush said yesterday he had foreseen the run-up three years ago and offered a solution - only to be thwarted by those criticizing him now." This begs the question: what analysis led to this insight?
9:54:54 AM
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WSJ. If current oil prices are sustained, the estimated losses at the Airlines is expected to top $5 b this year (hardest hit: American Airlines).
This brings up an interesting question: does the financial industry need terrorist-centric analysts that can calculate risk metrics and potential impact assessments on commodities/companies/etc.? My answer: of course. From what I have seen, the financial industry isn't doing this. Seems like an opportunity space to me. I bet I could build a $20-30 m company/division that does this in 2 years. BTW, research of this type can be an excellent way for a "technical security" company to differentiate itself from competitors, drive sales, build brand/recognition, and much more. Think about it.
8:31:41 AM
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Areas where Iraqi pipeline infrastructure is being attacked (circled). Where the US gets its oil from.
8:07:56 AM
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Chalabi's home and office raided by US troops. Political figure or "mafya boss?" After tens of millions in DoD funding, why is this so difficult to figure out? Update: Andrew Cockburn in Salon shows that Chalabi was in the process of developing non-state terrorist/criminal enterprise bent on undermining the provisional government. People don't realize that you can make mega-bucks in a failed state. It looks like Chalabi responded to the allure of that non-state entrepreneurial wealth. As Chalabi's old acquaintance told me today, "I think the U.S. moved against him because they realized he is a gambler, ready to bring it all down."
7:57:37 AM
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Homemade Microwave Weapons. New forms of warfare often require the development of new weapons (instead of the other way around). For global guerrillas it will be directed energy weapons (particularly microwave weapons) that destroy computerized systems. These weapons are inexpensive, (built with) common equipment, powerful, non-lethal, fast, light-weight, easy to use, and quickly replenished. Within the context of global guerrilla swarming on infrastructure, they are the perfect weapon.
7:27:50 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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