Saturday, May 29, 2004

NYTimes.  More analysis on the al Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia.  These attacks were designed for the maximum disruption of the psychology of expatriots in Saudi Arabia.  The significant expatriot departures that are likely to occur will significantly complicate/extend repair to the infrastructure attacks that will come next.  The strategy in a nutshell:  First isolate, then decimate.  Key points: The housing complex is for senior decision makers.  The gunmen took some hostages at the Oasis residential compound in Khobar, a luxury complex of 220 to 250 villas and apartments that is home to many senior Western company executives, including those from Shell, Honeywell and General Electric. The attack was brutal.  They then went door to door pulling residents out of their homes, said two Americans who live in Khobar and were contacted by telephone...  When the gunshots seemed to be hammering through the front door, she ran out through the back garden. She fled down the street toward a guard post near their house, but she was hit in the leg by gunfire just as she reached it.  Significant numbers of hostages are still being held.  Some said the gunmen were holding 15 people hostage, but other reports, quoting a manager at the Oasis, said they were holding as many as 50.  NOTE:  by design, this hostage situation will likely end badly after a period of fruitless negotiation.  The exodus has begun.  "With this going on, especially the people who are new will think that it is time to go," said one longtime resident who works for Saudi Aramco, the national oil company. "Forty families had already decided to go next month before this happened. That is a lot." 8:28:48 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Despite the lack of coverage (which may be due to a change in how they are reported by the military), KIAs are still running at 3 a day in Iraq.  This rate is about as intense as April (during the shooting war).  Attacks are running at 50 a day (twice the November rate). 12:29:40 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

New Post to Global Guerrillas  Target:  The Price of Oil.  The price of oil has emerged as an indicator of terrorist success.  Al Qaeda, as a virtual market-state replacement for the failing Middle Eastern nation-states, is demonstrating that it is better at adapting strategy to market indicators of success than the first world market-states. 8:54:02 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

A market-state viewpoint  The Homeland security terror alerts and other announcements of impending attacks by senior security officials are extremely similar to a profit warnings issued by major corporations.  There is the usual mix of blame on outside factors or one-time events that will (may) negatively impact the performance of the organization and thereby damage the well being of the stakeholders.  The only difference between the two is that there isn't a market mechanism by which to punish bad performance by our public security organizations except the extremely blunt presidential elections. 8:01:10 AM    Comment_ Trackback []