Monday, June 28, 2004

Watch the flow of electricity in Iraq.  If it suffers daily disruptions by global guerrillas, the interim government will spiral out of control.  At this point, the control of infrastructure is more important than the control of violence. 7:33:47 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

WP.  Oil competition heats up. For months China and Japan have been locked in a diplomatic battle over access to the big oil fields in Siberia. Japan, which depends entirely on imported oil, is desperately lobbying Moscow for a 2,300-mile pipeline from Siberia to coastal Japan. But fast-growing China, now the world's second-largest oil user, after the United States, sees Russian oil as vital for its own "energy security" and is pushing for a 1,400-mile pipeline south to Daqing. The petro-rivalry has become so intense that Japan has offered to finance the $5 billion pipeline, invest $7 billion in development of Siberian oil fields and throw in an additional $2 billion for Russian "social projects" -- this despite the certainty that if Japan does win Russia's oil, relations between Tokyo and Beijing may sink to their lowest, potentially most dangerous, levels since World War II. 5:06:12 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

WSJ.  China last year for the first time eclipsed the U.S. as the biggest recipient of foreign direct investment 10:21:37 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

MIT.  Debunking dirty bombs.  They won't kill you.  The real impact of a dirty bomb would be twofold:  EPA policies and fear.  The fear is self-explanatory.  EPA policies are so stringent they will force evacuation despite a lack of real risk (this is a policy gap that can be exploited).  This means that dirty bombs will likely be used as part of a larger disruption effort (to generate a sustained fear vector as part of an urban take-down) and area denial (for targeted economic damage to a company -- particularly knowledge intensive companies that gather critical employees in a single location). 7:52:23 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

Wired.  More data on how game software is transforming education and research.  7:25:57 AM    Comment_ Trackback []

On Point.  Interview with Thomas Barnett on the "Pentagon's New Map."  Jack Beatty rakes him over the coals.  Barnett is right that the relentless march of globalization is at the root of what we are seeing.  He is also right that the solution is full connectivity (markets and networks) for the "gap."  He goes horribly astray when he proposes that the Pentagon, the world's largest holdover of nation-state bureaucracy, should play a central role in getting those people connected.  The Pentagon's new map is a path to financial ruin and rampant global insurgencies (global guerrillas). 6:45:35 AM    Comment_ Trackback []