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Saturday, July 10, 2004 |
 "Whatever the complexities of the puzzles we strive to solve,'' Sherman Kent wrote, "and whatever the sophisticated techniques we may use to collect the pieces and store them, there can never be a time when the thoughtful man can be supplanted as the intelligence device supreme.''
8:25:39 PM 
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Global guerrillas hit a gas pipeline today that feeds the enormous powerplant at Beiji. This follows the attack six days ago on the north-to-south oil pipeline that fed the plant. There have been over 130 (the 70 number in the article is low) attacks on oil and gas pipelines by global guerrillas in the past year.
4:54:03 PM
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Thanks Lisa. You load the page and you hear this “beep beep beep” sound? That’s because the information truck is backing up toward you at high speed.
12:38:12 PM
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Britt Blaser: The worst moment in my life was a hard landing at Danang, Vietnam in early 1968.
12:33:03 PM
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Pentagon to establish asymmetric warfare group. Can a hierarchical "unit" keep up with a bazaar's innovation, particularly if it is staffed with personnel from inside the DoD? It's like asking the CIA to reform itself.
The asymmetric warfare specialists to number nearly 200 soldiers, civilians and contractors by next January will operate much like the IED task force, but with a broadened mandate. The unit is expected to be capable of planning and training for emerging threats in both conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction. The AWG specialists will prepare to counter high- and low-technology weapons, to include even such futuristic concepts as “ray guns,” according to a task force contractor... “We need a ‘Manhattan Project’ approach.”
9:59:51 AM
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BK posts a critique of a security analysis of the DNC convention in Boston. It points out some basic flaws in the evolving design of security. However, al Qaeda (and that is the group we are concerned about) plans their operations in a meticulous way. Operations in hostile environments currently take years to evolve. They are also aimed at targets with well known patterns of security (if any).
The fluxing pattern of security (however poor) of the convention makes it difficult to plan against. If the attack does happen, look for the indirect attack, the "black swan." Also, the output of the conventions is media coverage. An attack that dominates the media during the convention is as valuable as one directly on the convention (and could probably be done with much higher probability of success if aimed at an alternative target with known security). Finally, the fact that an extremely expensive security effort has shut down a major American city for a week, is a result al Qaeda would consider a victory.
8:31:34 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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