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Wednesday, July 14, 2004 |
 AT. Welcome to the Islamic emirate of Fallujah. Fallujah is now totally under the control of the Sunni Iraqi resistance and their emirs (chieftains). More than 10,000 mujahideen armed to their teeth rule more than 500,000 people, just 50 kilometers west of Baghdad. In today's Fallujah, every military commander is an emir. They may be strident, conservative Salafis, philosophical Sufis, al-Qaeda admirers, former Ba'ath Party army officials, former secret-service agents, or even the average neighbor, a father of six.
9:40:58 PM 
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Stigmergic Learning and Global Guerrillas. How does a diverse network of global guerrillas learn? Stigmergic signaling within the bazaar of violence provides some clues. Disrupting these signals may be a key to victory.
12:43:06 PM
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The bazaar of violence in Iraq scores a victory: the Philippines is withdrawing its peacekeepers.
12:40:04 PM
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WSJ. Surging demand (particularly from China) has hit the world's oil production capacity limits. This makes oil prices more volatile and responsive to GG attacks. "It's a tight window of vulnerability" in the third quarter, says Ann-Louise Hittle, an analyst in Boston for Wood Mackenzie. Oil producers outside OPEC typically produce at maximum capacity, leaving the cartel as the last resort to meet world demand in a pinch. Wood Mackenzie estimates that OPEC, excluding erratic Iraq, only has about 800,000 barrels a day of idle capacity in the current quarter. In its latest monthly report on oil markets, released yesterday, the IEA reckoned that OPEC effectively has only 620,000 barrels a day of idle pumping capacity, after cartel members opened their taps wide last month. Nonetheless, the IEA warned against "too alarmist a response" to its figures, because in a real supply crunch, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and others temporarily could raise output beyond normal capacity levels by "surging" their output. So-called surge capacity can be used for short periods, until the high flows threatened to damage oil reservoirs and facilities designed to handle lower volumes.
8:25:11 AM
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Another GG attack on a gas pipeline near Kirkuk.
8:16:13 AM
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Wildfires and infrastructure. How protecting infrastructure complicates firefighting. Crews battling the Willow fire quickly recognized that the stakes were high: Besides charring the pristine forest, flames threatened APS power lines supplying Phoenix with electricity. Willow fire Incident Commander Jeff Whitney said he worked extensively with the 16 utility companies serving Arizona and New Mexico to anticipate threats to power supplies. APS officials were present at every daily fire briefing, working closely with fire management officials and ground crews to gauge the blaze's snaking path toward major power lines, Whitney said. However, when the Westwing power substation near Sun City burned July 4, it changed Whitney's plan of attack. "We couldn't afford to bring a power line down if we had to," Whitney said. "That really threw a wrench into the gears."
8:12:38 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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