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Wednesday, August 18, 2004 |
 The Mahdi militia's effective attack/threat combo has shut down the main southern pipeline in Iraq -- essentially halving exports over the last week and a half. As a result, stigmergic swarming attacks (which are now being claimed by groups) on oil pipelines are in motion. Another group, the Jaish Ansar al-Sunna (a Sunni umbrella group), successfully attacked oil pipelines that feed Baghdad's Dora refinery. This will result in a gas shortage in Baghdad (which will have a negative impact on privately produced electricity used to compensate for extensive power outages in the city). Also, other guerrillas, the Secret Action Group of The Imam Mehdi Army, attacked a well and threatens more attacks. Iraq's bazaar of violence continues to produce results. Current oil prices are the equivalent of a $300 million a day tax on the US.
9:35:04 PM 
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Reuters TV. Oil well fire due to RPG attack.
10:30:30 AM
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WP. As anticipated on Global Guerrillas, oil continued its march to top $47 a barrel. The continued growth in demand opens an amazing window of vulnerability that can wreck havoc on the global economy if exploited. China recorded 21 percent oil demand growth in the first half of the year and crude imports by the world's second-largest oil consumer are up 40 percent year-on-year to the end of July, according to recent data, indicating that Beijing's bid to slow economic growth has yet to make much impact on energy demand. U.S. oil demand so far this year is up 3.5 percent and the nation's crude inventories capping inventory builds as rising consumption soaks up extra imports from OPEC suppliers like Saudi Arabia. An attack on Saudi Arabian infrastructure (3-4 low cost disruptions ala Iraq) could cause over $1 trillion in economic damage (the new leverage). The most disturbing aspect of this new form of disruption is that it can be repeated again and again (a shadow OPEC).
8:52:47 AM
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Wired. LOL. "Homeland security Phds?"
8:12:54 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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