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Wednesday, September 22, 2004 |
 Kroll report on political/military risk in Saudi Arabia. They are negative. This report is aimed at investors that the Kingdom needs to build infrastructure over the next 20 years. Global guerrilla targeting of investment flows (a pillar of globalization) is working.
8:18:37 PM 
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Lind finds that low-level US Army units are innovating well (which essential to fighting the rapid innovation in the 4th Generation Warfare bazaar in Iraq). This WSJ article demonstrates that:
By the time Capt. Ayers arrived on the scene, Iraqis had looted the Humvee's machine gun and high-tech gun sights. Losing equipment to the enemy is a mistake that can ruin an officer's career. Standard Army practice holds that the area should be searched immediately.
Instead, Capt. Ayers, 29 years old, took a risk. He went to the village sheik's house. As a sign of respect, he said, he wouldn't search the village. But he gave the local leader 48 hours to find and return the equipment. "If we don't get the equipment back, I am going to come back with my men and tear apart every house in this village," he recalls saying. If the gear was returned, he promised to reduce patrols in the area.
The gamble ran counter to Capt. Ayers's training, which states that the longer troops wait to search an area, the less chance they'll find what they are looking for. His bosses told him he had made a huge blunder. Two days later, though, the sheik returned every scrap of looted equipment to the Army. Later, he would pay a heavy price for that move.
Unfortunately, this decentralized flexibility doesn't extend beyond Cpt. Ayer's level (and it is also likely Ayers is still relatively rare).
10:09:55 AM
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Reuters. Female prisoner to be released in a blatant exchange for a Briton's life. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the bazaar's learning process (UPDATE: confusion reigns again, the release of the prisoner has been revoked by the US). The obvious conclusion would be that it was a simple extension of hostage tactics that would initiate a swarm of similar attacks. However, I am not so sure. The real goals were too complex. I suspect that this application of the tactic was more of an excuse to kill Americans over what would normally be an unachievable demand (a demand that would play well within Iraq given that it was reported simply as -- "free all women prisoners"). It was planned to be a double victory during Allawi's visit to the US. Releasing a woman prisoner changed the dynamic.
9:28:33 AM
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WP. Government siezes airline traveller data. Moving towards a world of "verified" people. It's only a matter of time before this system is applied to control entry into almost all "areas of interest." At that point, if you are arrested in an illegal protest or write something questionable online, you could become an non-person.
8:31:23 AM
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AP. Afghanistan continues to heat up. Three US soldiers dead in the last week. Eight engagements on Monday alone (14 US injuries and one death). This is turning into a classic para-military insurgency as warlords begin to sign on with the Taliban.
6:50:38 AM
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LATimes. US assassination (ala an Israeli style missile strike) of Tawhid and Jihad's spiritual leader compliments Allawi's death squad assassinations of anti-US clerics (see yesterday's post). Sheik Abu Anas al-Shami, 35, was killed when a missile hit the car he was traveling in on Friday in the west Baghdad suburb of Abu Ghraib, said the clerics, who have close ties to the family. They spoke on condition of anonymity. We are now starting to target what we believe to be one of the centers of gravity in this struggle: Islamic clerics. The real center of gravity is the Bazaar.
6:47:44 AM
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NewsMax. China's efforts to secure oil. This is very interesting if true: David Hale, an economist who specializes in Chinese affairs, warned that the People's Liberation Army has deployed about 4,000 troops to southern Sudan. Hale stated in a recent speech that the Chinese troops are there to protect an oil pipeline. Like the US, China is starting to get frantic about securing oil supplies.
5:57:45 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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