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Monday, November 01, 2004 |
 Global guerrilla journal: Bin Laden on Economic Attrition.
From superpower baiting to systems leverage to returns on investment to economic attrition -- bin Laden confirms the global guerrilla message. The analysis is right on (my readers are, as always, way ahead of the curve on this and the people I brief are even farther ahead given that I can provide much more substance in person). This is the way the next war will be fought.
6:50:41 PM 
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Oil is below $50 again. The fundamentals are driving it down. Iraqi disruption is factored into the price. However, the stage is set (a continuing Window of Vulnerability) for a major shock through disruption in a new area (Saudi Arabia or Russia is my bet given the data/analysis I have).
12:09:39 PM
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Palestinian guerrilla groups are still locked into traditional terrorism. It may be a reflection of their organizational form. Organizations that are replicas of nation-states (with both political and social wings) are much less innovative and effective than the light foco networks of global guerrillas in Iraq. Given this, it is likely that Van Creveld's strategy for Israel could work. Palestinian groups would quickly form conventional military units if given the opportunity to do so.
6:47:46 AM
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GAO report on financial market protection (PDF).
6:39:58 AM
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Recent statements by both bin Laden and Basayev indicate that they recognize that decentralized bazaar is in control of the global Islamic insurgency. Bin Laden shifted into an elder statesman (monarch) role with his election eve threat against the US (gold robes, no weapons, etc.). This move is recognition that to the extent he does exercise control, it is more through his ability to focus the grand strategy (on the US and by extension the elements of the global economy that support the US) of the effort and is not operational. In parallel, Basayev claimed that the Chechen insurgency is in the hands of independent groups that don't need his guidance to operate. He merely guides from afar. ‘‘Our warriors are self-sufficient, no one needs to teach them anything,’’ he said. ‘‘I just need to send letters and my personal participation is not needed, it is enough to meet once or twice a year. This autonomy is I think our greatest success.’’
Contrast this "hands off" approach with the "hands on" micromanagement of Bush and Allawi of the counter-terrorism effort.
6:19:17 AM
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MEMRI (disputed). The tape of Osama bin Laden that was aired on Al-Jazeera(1) on Friday, October 29th included a specific threat to "each U.S. state," designed to influence the outcome of the upcoming election against George W. Bush. The U.S. media in general mistranslated the words "ay wilaya" (which means "each U.S. state")(2) to mean a "country" or "nation" other than the U.S., while in fact the threat was directed specifically at each individual U.S. state. This suggests some knowledge by bin Laden of the U.S. electoral college system. In a section of his speech in which he harshly criticized George W. Bush, bin Laden stated: "Any U.S. state that does not toy with our security automatically guarantees its own security."
5:19:43 AM
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Dig deeper. Yesterday's rocket attack on a Tikrit hotel wasn't a random attack on civilians. It killed 15 Shiite workers brought to Tikrit for a contract. It was another attack on the free movement of people (which is a core element of globalization).
5:12:23 AM
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Question. Will the impact of $50 + oil ever reach consumers in ways other than the gas pump and home heating costs? Maybe not. While individuals seem to have lost the power to increase wages (the net benefit of productivity increases have by and large flowed to corporate coffers) due to offshoring/outsourcing, they haven't lost control of prices (due to the Internet). There's reason to believe that corporations will be forced to absorb the costs. This may mean fasters cycles of improvement in energy efficiency in an attempt to grow profits.
5:04:46 AM
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Van Creveld's "Defending Israel." This approach may be contrasted with Israel’s current strategy, which is to use conventional forces to try to win an unconventional war. Van Creveld is proposing to first convert the struggle to a conventional one, then win—or what is much more likely, deter—it. Review. This does look like the plan Sharon has adopted.
4:54:59 AM
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The net result of the voting problems may likely be a national electronic voting system (with a paper trail) administered by an independent body. It may not happen in this cycle, but it will have to be built. What could you do with a system like this? A move to more direct democracy?
4:41:11 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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