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Friday, November 05, 2004 |
 Gal Luft at IAGS examines threats to the BTC pipeline. This pipeline is almost finished. It is expected to pump 1 m barrels of oil a day from the Caspian region when it is full up. Given the shortfall in production from Iraq, this pipeline is critical. For more contextual background on this see my brief on the topic. Some noteworthy items:
- Threat. According to Azerbaijan’s National Security Minister, Namiq Abbasov, the country’s special services had obtained information that regional insurgents and members of al Qaeda are planning acts of sabotage designed to derail construction of the pipeline.
- US protection. General Charles Ward, the Deputy Commander of the U.S. European Command, revealed in a Senate hearing that “provisionally deployed mobile forces” will soon patrol the BTC.
- Existing protection. According to Natig Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company, $170 million has already been spent on safeguarding the pipeline. In addition, unlike many other pipelines around the world, BTC will be fully buried and its pumping stations will be surrounded by walls and fences.
7:35:33 PM 
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Attrition is now 50% in the Iraqi batalions now about to assault Fallujah (through casualties and desertion) -- this is up from 40% a month ago.
UPDATE (6 November): NPR reports that over the last 24 hours, 100 out of the 425 troops in Iraq's best trained battalion have deserted.
4:19:39 PM
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My brother shot me some headlines from UK papers. Here's one that pretty much sums up the Euro perspective.
2:39:22 PM
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Business Week. Mark Weisbrot agrees with me as he makes the case that the US cannot sustain superpower spending for much longer. A combination of a high current debt levels (67.5% of GDP), a high annual deficit of $639 billion (this is less the sleight of hand with the trust funds), rising interest rates (inflation is again on the march with a rate of 4.9% over the last six months and the fed is on its case) that will balloon debt payments, and a potential pullout of foreign investors (as the dollar begins its inevitable long slide to balance our ballooning trade deficit) will sink us if we continue to spend like we do.
1:02:33 PM
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Forget Fallujah for a second. Will a swarm form around the Black Watch in Baghdad this month? The political impact would be substantial. Zarqawi initiated the plausible premise with the suicide car bomb that killed three and wounded more yesterday. It will be a learning opportunity to see the swarm dynamics on this.
8:16:00 AM
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I watched "Control Room" last night. Excellent movie. It reinforced that they do provide information you can't find on the western media due to nanny-state restrictions (and you get it before it is repackaged for the Internet). However, one item that did stand out, was a desire by many at the channel for an Arab victory, regardless of who delivers it.
6:44:19 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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