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Saturday, November 06, 2004 |
 Nice. Typepad uprgraded their editing interface.
5:55:56 PM 
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AT. China locked in part of its future energy needs with a long-term arrangement with Iran via a $100 billion 25-year deal (for 10 million tons of LNG a year). It is expected to increase to 15-20 million tons a year. An additional agreement on oil worth another $50 to $100 billion is expected soon.
This does two things. China has been able to lock in one of the few stable sources of energy. It also means that economic pressure (sanctions) on Iran to suspend its nuclear program will be ineffective. China has alredy indicated its willingness to veto any measures against Iran in the Security Council.
Iran is already seen as a gateway to the Middle East for Chinese products. Chinese products are already flooding Iranian markets at below market prices. Bi-lateral trade between Iran and China is already at $6 billion a year and $10 billion a year by 2006 (Iran's largest trading partner).
1:15:48 PM
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I wish I was here this weekend. I have developed trend lines that follow MEST compression, density, and efficiency curves that would generate some discussion (particularly since they would bring us to an equilibrium point that is not what these folks are anticipating).
10:57:19 AM
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The deadly assaults in Baghdad, Samarra, and Ramadi indicate a fundamental fact of what we see in Fallujah. It is a TAZ (temporary autonomous zone). As such it is only a sanctuary of convenience. When you put pressure on it, the guerrillas melt away and attack elsewhere. What's left is a collection of local gangs. Its local character is also different than Najaf (in that situation, the militia was bused in).
10:39:21 AM
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Listening to a little Supertramp this morning. For some reason I always associate it with a memory of an open air market in Helsinki where one of the hand-to-mouth boothowners was playing "Breakfast in America" in the background as he sold knock-off CDs.
10:32:10 AM
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© Copyright 2004 John Robb.
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