Friday, December 03, 2004

Juan Cole translates some news from the Ash-Sharq al-Awsat on how insurgents are targeting political figures.  The most interesting item concerns a potential global guerrilla start-up focused on the assassination of political figures:  Ash-Sharq al-Awsat reports the kidnapping of a female member of the governing council of Salahuddin and assassination attempts on two members of the municipal council of Khalis north of Baqubah. If provincial governing council members can't be protected, how can you have a stable government? Police in Salahuddin province maintained that guerrillas had established a special operations unit which had a list of 100 personalities they intended to assassinate. There is every reason to think that the guerrrillas do have such hit lists, and also that they have been relatively effective in implementing it. 2:21:04 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Crude oil futures dip below $43 a barrel.  This is to be expected (and something I provided my clients a month ago).  The market has already factored in Iraqi disruption.  Given new production, the only way the price could go is down.  The only likely reversal to anticipate is the expansion of this conflict into Saudi Arabia and Russia (Transneft) -- this is best captured by significantly out of the money call options with long durations.  The wait is on for the inevitable black swan disruption. 12:15:34 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Foreign Affairs.  A pillar of globalization is the ability of the US to export security.  This relies on US legitimacy.  Without legitimacy, US troops will find stiff opposition everywhere they go.  Tucker and Hendrickson make the case that the US has lost the legitimacy necessary to function as the protector of globalization. 9:21:30 AM    Comment_ Trackback []