Wednesday, December 15, 2004

Here's a very plausable outcome based on the dynamics at work in Iraq:  the violence will intensify after the elections. 8:14:54 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Nov 2003 interview with Saad al-Faqih on Saudi Arabia.  The regime is facing several major challenges that it is incapable of dealing with. The challenge of violence has already started and is increasing. Once it shifts towards the royals, rather than Westerners, the collapse will be imminent.  In addition, there are mounting socio-economic problems: increasing poverty, unemployment, domestic crime, social disintegration and sky-high national debt. In the background, there is the crumbling of the regime's Islamic legitimacy since the 1991 Gulf War, which has significantly weakened its foundations. 7:04:55 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

Reuters.  Unfortunately, as expected: Open source warfare is getting results. A BOLD, innovative insurgency is becoming more effective against US supply lines in Iraq and explosive attacks have slowed military operations there, a senior American general said on today.  "They have had a growing understanding that where they can affect us is in the logistics flow," Air Force Lieutenant General Lance Smith, deputy chief of the US Central Command, told reporters.The insurgency "is a very, very sophisticated enemy", Army Major General Stephen Speakes told reporters.  5:39:38 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

This interview with Martin Van Creveld points to a common theme among 4GW theorists.  First, you can't win a war with the forces of disorder.  Second, the only way to deal with sources of instability is to withdraw and build a wall to protect yourself. Unfortunately, it isn't that easy when global guerrilla warfare is factored in. 12:25:26 PM    Comment_ Trackback []

A couple questions on the Google library scan.  Will they be offering full PDF copies of the books (as is current behavior on Google for PDF files) or just a limited number of scanned pages (like Amazon)?  It looks like it will be a full scan copy (see Google Print), but it will be contextual with a larded up Web page.  And if it is limited to this format, will the complete electronic book be available as a purchase (in the case of books where the copyright has lapsed, repackaged content)?  Will Google get all of the revenue or will they share it with the libraries? If the PDFs were available as part of a package monthly deal (an all you can eat system, which all content seems to be going towards), then it could expand to include new books as well.  A pro rata share of the revenue could be provided to all authors etc. based on download activity.  This may be the way to radically grow the book market since I would likely download many, many more books under a single wrap fee than if I had to purchase them individually. 8:52:18 AM    Comment_ Trackback []