Thursday, February 03, 2005

Wolfowitz in testimony to the Senate Armed Service Committee :  ...the violence "is not a nationalist insurgency. It is an unholy alliance of old terrorists and new terrorists" of remnants of deposed President Saddam Hussein's regime and "new terrorists drawn from across the region." Correct.  It isn't a nationalist insurgency.  It's worse.  It is a global guerrilla insurgency grounded in fourth generation warfare.  Unfortunately, he almost certainly meant this statement to be a put down. 8:02:45 PM

Jamestown on new guerrilla activity in Kuwait.  If there are any immediate lessons to derive from the attacks, they are that the fears of the spillover effect from the conflict in Iraq appear to have been corroborated by the confessions of captives to have reached the Emirate from Fallujah and Ramadi; that the commonly held linkage between lack of democracy and the rise of terrorism is not operative the Kuwaiti system, with an elected parliament and a free press, is representative and responsive to the public mood; and that the common jihadist ideological factor (at present expressed through the slogan to "expel the polytheists from the peninsula") has the potential to override any obstacles put in the way by national identities in the Gulf region. As this issue's article on Oman shows, it may even override doctrinal differences. Islamist terrorism looks set to creep down the Gulf coast in waves.  6:49:52 PM

Johnsville News has a wrap up on the homeless man that shut down part of the NYC subway system (600,000 commuters impacted). 3:54:10 PM

AT.  If China does not ease controls on its currency within six months, it will face a 27.5% tariff on all exports to the US under legislation to be introduced in the Senate on Friday.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  China has created a currency/export bubble through overt manipulation of its economy.  When it pops, there will be lots of unintended consequences.  Is this the trigger?  More from Bloomberg. Bill Gates at Davos:  "I'm short the dollar." "The ol' dollar, it's gonna go down."  Gates was more upbeat about the economic prospects of China, which he described as a "change agent" for the next two years.  "It's phenomenal," Gates said. "It's a brand new form of capitalism."  Four months ago Gates' $27bn foundation received approval from China's foreign currency regulator to invest as much as $100m in the nation's yuan shares and bonds. 1:04:19 PM

CNN.  Basayev vows more Beslans.  This is an interesting test case.  Al Qaeda clearly influenced Chechen guerrillas with 9/11.  The Russian equivalent was Beslan.  The reaction of the Russian state was similar to the US reaction (although the process was different).  It will be interesting to see if al Qaeda's new thinking (global guerrilla system disruption) will be adopted by the Chechens too (as per the Chechen Independence scenario).  Basayev's network does appear to be loose enough to foster the innovation necessary (and it has demonstated an interest in this).  All it takes is for one guerrilla entrepreneur to show the way. 11:40:13 AM

Pakistan.  Baloch guerrillas attacked a single 220 KV electric supply line (one of three).  This resulted in a blackout in the province.  Attacks were also made against the train system.  Province disconnection in motion.  I suspect the Baloch guerrillas will increasingly opt to disrupt national systems rather than local systems (the model for this is the recent attack on the natural gas pipeline outside Lahore).  This radically increases the costs to the national economy (better ROIs on violence capital) by disrupting connections to the global economy.  The Chechen scenario applies here.  The net result may not be national independence but rather a full featured TAZ (all of the benefits but none of the responsibility). 8:46:23 AM