Updated: 3/1/2005; 7:52:59 AM.
John Robb's Weblog
Skating to where the puck will be.
        

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

 Pakistan.  Guerrillas attempted (potentially the BLA) to blow up an 18-inch gas pipeline in downtown Lahore.  Iraq.  A major internal oil pipeline was hit again near Baiji throwing smoke over Baghdad.  The general in charge of pipeline security in Kirkuk was assassinated. 
4:38:23 PM     

 Small Groups and Global Warfare.  The ability to wage global warfare is now in the hands of small groups.  This brief examines the relative threat of small groups armed with WMDs and those that conduct systems disruption. 
1:43:47 PM     

 WSJLoyalist paramilitaries (the problems that I point out in this brief are on the way) are growing rapidly in Iraq (called "pop-ups" by the US military).  This is in response to the collapse in the attempts to build an Iraqi security system.

These dozen disconnected units totaling as many as 15,000 soldiers are fast becoming one of the most significant developments in the new Iraq security situation.  The unplanned units -- commanded by friends and relatives of cabinet officers and tribal sheiks -- go by names like the Defenders of Baghdad, the Special Police Commandos, the Defenders of Khadamiya and the Amarah Brigade. The new units generally have the backing of the Iraqi government and receive government funding.

The allure is that these groups are morally more cohesive than traditional government units.

Troops who might have otherwise joined the regular Iraqi Army are drawn to these units because they are often led by a particularly inspirational commander or made up of people with similar tribal and religious backgrounds. This makes the units more cohesive and potentially effective against the insurgency. "Just show us where to go and we will eat the insurgents alive," an Iraqi in one of these units told Maj. Wales earlier this month when he tracked them down at a long-shuttered Baghdad airport.

As I anticipated, this development is being welcomed by the US military as a way to exit from Iraq ("controlled chaos"). 

As these irregular units proliferate, U.S. officials face a thorny dilemma: whether to encourage these forces, whose training and experience varies wildly, or to try to rein them in. "There is a tension between on the one hand encouraging and fostering initiative and on the other executing the plan for the Iraqi Security Forces that everyone agreed on," says Lt. Gen. David Petraeus, who is overseeing the massive U.S. effort to help train and equip Iraqi military units. "To be candid, I would err on the side of fostering initiative. I want to get the hell out of here."

This has translated into active support.

On Col. Coffman's recommendation, Gen. Petraeus visited the Commandos' base and was impressed with the troops. "When I saw them and where they were living I decided this was a horse to back," the U.S. general says today. He agreed to give the fledgling unit money to fix up its base and buy vehicles, ammunition, radios and more weapons.
8:35:36 AM     


 MSNBC.  Misconduct. Kurdish mercenaries. Incompetence.  Custer Battles.
6:52:40 AM     

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