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Sunday, March 06, 2005 |
 NZH and IHT. As the dollar slumped 7.5 per cent against major currencies, Buffett increased Berkshire’s position in the fourth quarter to US$21.4 billion of foreign currency forward contracts, or agreements to purchase an asset at a future date. "The evidence grows that our trade policies will put unremitting pressure on the dollar for many years to come," Buffett said in his annual letter to shareholders. Berkshire’s forward contracts rose from US$20 billion on September 30 and were spread among 12 denominations that Buffett declined to identify. Well over half of Bekshire's $3.5 billion in pretax gains in 2004 were from from bets against the dollar.
America's top investor speaks in harsh terms. "A country that is now aspiring to an 'Ownership Society' will not find happiness in -- and I will hyperbole here for emphasis -- a 'Sharecroppers Society.' But that is precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us."
12:27:09 PM 
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As expected, Iran is starting to brandish the oil trump card. Given the loss of much of Iraq's production and the rapid rise in Chinese imports, any conflict with Iran that results in even a moderate reduction in its exports would drive oil to $80 plus. The recent run-up in the oil market, due to an influx of speculative hedge fund money, is a bet on this eventuality. Worse than just higher prices, this would like result in a shortage of oil, particularly in countries that don't have special agreements with producers. If you were speculating as to why China and India have been so quick to cut deals with autocratic energy producers (Iran, Sudan, Venezuela, and Russia), this is the answer.
12:06:19 PM
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A chart that depicts the structure of the mercenary industry by Doug Brooks.
10:01:22 AM
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When you step outside the boundaries of law and process, all of the feedback loops that keep things logical and orderly melt away. Process dampens excess. Outside of these boundaries, the positive feedback loops of conspiracy, suspicion, and fear often spin things out of control. This is particularly important whenever violence is used. The situation in Italy right now (also Turkey etc.) is an example of what happens when an accepted process used to authorize military action is circumvented. Suspicion, conspiracy, and fear runs rampant.
9:49:09 AM
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I need to redesign this weblog. It's boring and doesn't allow me as much flexibility as I would like. However, I don't have any ideas on a design or the skills necessary to build a high quality one.
5:14:52 AM
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© Copyright 2005 John Robb.
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